Abstrato

Towards a Credible Forecasting Process for Sustainable User Innovation

Xavier Fernández-i-Marín

The document presents a review of the challenges that arise when forecasting techniques are applied to predict the evolution of sustainable user innovation. It also provides an augmented list of variables that may be used in the process of envisioning the future of lifestyles in Europe. Forecasting any kind of individual and social behaviour requires assembling several elements from different disciplines: from mere technical methodological challenges (choice of model) to substantial theoretical discussions (prediction of outcomes); from data gathering strategies (combination of sources and their reliability) to measurement (Choice of variables used to represent the relevant ideas); from establishing the rules of micro-behaviour of individuals to using well established models for individual interactions. This document is a review of measurement indicators in sustainability models, focusing on available models for forecasting the future of natural environments, ecosystems, climate change, urban mobility and demographic patterns. In the context of a large European research project there is a need to perform systematic forecasts of several Dimensions of individual lifestyles Therefore, the purpose is to provide the building blocks in which a systematic and credible forecasting of user innovation in Europe in 2030/2050 can be built.