Abstrato

Day Ahead Electricity Price Prediction for a Distribution System in India

R.Ragavi, M.S.Kamalesh, N. Senthilnathan

The private power vendors in India has their own generation units and distribution units. Adani Power, Essar Energy, Reliance infrastructure etc.., are some of the private power vendors in Northern part of India. These private power vendors have providing electricity to their consumers with their own tariff rate. Based on the availability of power, historical prices and previous load demand on hourly basis, cost prediction can be done by Time Series model & Fuzzy Inference System. Marginal Cost Price for the past year has been taken and it is scheduled for every 3 hours. The output from the fuzzy logic is given to the scope and the predicted cost is obtained as a signal. By this method, we can easily attain the predicted cost of the power which has been used for the future reference. It is useful to estimate and compare the market prices with the predicted price. Market participants can able to fix the tomorrow�s price based on the values attained by the fuzzy logic system. The performance of the proposed model was validated by comparing the predicted price with the previous market prices of the deregulated electricity market. The above models for forecasting were built in MATLAB 2013a simulink and m-file coding platform.